Welcome back to another edition of NFL Picks against the spread. Last week we went 4-2 with both my locks coming out as winners. Follow me on Twitter at @TWN_Wilson as I might be giving out a lock for this Sunday. Now let’s get to the picks.
Primetime Lock of the Week
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs Sunday 8:20PM ET
Try to jump on this line as quick as you can as once Patrick Mahomes is ruled out for Sunday, the Packers are going to become heavy favorites. The Packers were favored by -4.5 to start the week, but have gone down to -3.5 with the news that Mahomes has been limited in practice.
The Chiefs are making it seem like Mahomes could play Sunday night against the Packers, but that will not happen. Not even Batman could save Gotham a week after dislocating his knee. Patrick Mahomes will be inactive for this game as well as the next couple of weeks.
This game is in Kansas City, but home-field advantage does not seem to matter in Arrowhead this season as the Chiefs have already lost two games at home. The Packers are going to come out of Sunday as the third road team to pull off a win at Arrowhead.
Matt Moore will be the starter for the Chiefs, which will limit what Kansas City can do on offense. I expect the 6-1 Packers to easily win this Sunday Night Football match-up.
Lock of the Week
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons Sunday 1:00PM ET
The Seahawks are coming off a tough loss at home against the Baltimore Ravens, but I expect this match-up against the Falcons to be a bounce back week for Seattle. This line may fluctuate depending on the Falcons injury report.
Atlanta could be without QB Matt Ryan this Sunday, and whoever starts at QB will be short a receiver as Mohamed Sanu was traded to the New England Patriots on Tuesday. The Seahawks should easily beat the Falcons by a touchdown even if Matt Ryan starts, so I would jump on this line as Matt Ryan being ruled out should change the line.
The Falcons are 1-6 against the spread this season, and I expect this week to be no different. Hammer the Seahawks -5.5 in this game.
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings Under/42 Thursday 8:20PM ET
I expect this game to be a low scoring affair as the Redskins are a pretty weak team. They will not score much in this game, so the Vikings will be relied upon for the over to hit, which is not a good sign.
Vikings WR Adam Thielen has already been ruled out, so Kirk Cousins will have one less target to throw to. This is a short week for both teams, so I do not expect either side to have a high scoring offense. This game has 20-3 written all over it.
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (-.5.5) Sunday 1:00PM ET
I love the Colts in this game as I believe they will win by at least a touchdown. Even with Andrew Luck’s retirement, the Colts look like the team to beat in the AFC South after their win against the Houston Texans last week.
The Denver Broncos will not pose a problem for the Colts as they are destined to be a bottom of the league team by the end of the season. Denver looked awful against the Chiefs last week, and I expect this game to be no different.