Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: U/49 Thursday 8:20PM ET
For the most part, these Thursday night games have been fairly low scoring, and that is what I expect in this week 7 match-up. The Broncos have one of the worst offenses in the league as they average 17.7 points per game, which is 26th worst in the league.
The Chiefs are going to do most of the scoring in this game, but it will not be enough for the over to hit. I believe that Patrick Mahomes is playing hurt right now, which means his usual explosiveness will be limited. Kansas City and Denver both played on Sunday, so this is a short week for them.
This might be the worst game that Mahomes will have all season as his ankle seemed to bother him in his Sunday matchup against the Houston Texans. 49 is a high O/U for a Thursday night game, so the under is a safe bet in this game.
Lock of the Week
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Atlanta Falcons: Sunday 1:00PM ET
The Rams have lost three straight games as they seem to be suffering from a major Super Bowl hangover. They will get back to their winning ways this week against the 1-5 Atlanta Falcons. The Rams just sold their future for CB Jalen Ramsey who will shut down WR Julio Jones in this game.
The Falcons are just two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance, but their franchise is heading in the wrong direction. Atlanta’s offense is hot and cold, while the defense struggles to keep points off the board.
Head coach Dan Quinn is most likely on the verge of being fired with the way his team has been playing. I would not be surprised if a loss at home against the Rams was his nail in the coffin.
Los Angeles’ defense is going to pose problems for Atlanta, while QB Jared Goff should get in a rhythm. The Rams -3 are an easy pick in this game. I expect the Rams to run away with this one, while the Falcons score some garbage time points to make the score look closer than it actually was, but the Rams will still cover.
Arizona Cardinals (+3) at New York Giants: Sunday 1:00PM ET
This is a matchup of two teams that are playing on an equal playing field. Neither team is great, so I do not expect anyone to run away with this game. The Cardinals do have the edge in this game as CB Patrick Peterson will be returning from suspension.
Kyler Murray has also taken great strides in his first six games, so expect an explosive game from him. The Cardinals may not win outright, but they should be able to keep the game close.
Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks O/49.5 Sunday 4:25 PM ET
I wanted to include an over in this week’s picks against the spread, and I think the Ravens vs Seahawks has the best chance to go over. There are not many games this week that I see as being high scoring, but this could be one.
The Ravens are the league’s second best scorers with 30.7 points per game, while the Seahawks rank 7th with 27.5 points per game. This is a matchup of two fast and exciting QBs with Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson, so expect a shootout in this late afternoon game.
Both defenses are middle of the road in terms of yards per game, so expect the offenses to prevail in a high scoring back and forth contest.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+116): Sunday 1:00 PM ET
For my last pick, I am giving out a moneyline selection to round up this variety of picks. The officials in the Monday Night game interjected themselves into the action costing the Lions a chance to win against Green Bay. Detroit has a very good defense and they will pose a problem for Kirk Cousins.
The Lions are home underdogs in this game, which is why I love the moneyline. Detroit will make a push for the playoffs this year, while the Vikings will falter under Kirk Cousins’ fully guaranteed deal.