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The BMW Championship: Preview & DFS Picks

Power Rankings

5. Justin Thomas

Image result for justin thomas northern trust

Thomas is the only one on this list to not have won this season (Rahm has won on the European Tour and a team event on the PGA Tour) but he has been awfully close a number of times. He started 2019 off by finishing 3rd, T16, 3rd, 2nd, and 9th in January and February, with the runner-up finish coming at the Genesis Open. He played well at The Masters before dealing with an injury that stopped him from playing at Bethpage, and since has played a limited schedule since being cut at the US Open. But in his last 3 events, he has finished tied for 12th or better, including this past week at Liberty National. Stats wise Thomas is still having a fantastic season, ranking first in birdie average, 7th in eagle average, and 8th in scoring average. He hits nearly 71% of greens in regulation (5th on Tour), and is 2nd in strokes gained: approaching the green. These approach stats say he is not only one of the best ball strikers on Tour, but that he sets up perfectly for a long track like Medinah.

4. Brooks Koepka

Image result for brooks koepka pga championship 2019

Koepka has been the talk of the town these last few weeks- he won the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational a few weeks ago and then made headlines on Wednesday (TWSN was at the press conference) when he called out players for not being more vocal about slow play in the game. Brooks, like many other guys on this list, is a regular on US National teams for international competitions, but has yet to play Medinah in any official capacity. While we know he can hit the long ball (14th in driving distance, 16th in SG: off the tee, and 9th SG: tee to green), the key this week will be approach shots and accuracy. He is 10th in GIR this season, but only 85th in accuracy off the tee (63%). However, last week he hit 73% of fairways, and has hit above his average the 3 tournaments prior as well. He’s 13th in SG: approaching the green and this week you will see a lot of approaches from 150+ yards even for long hitters. Brooks is 4th from 175-200 and 14th from over 200 yards.

3. Patrick Reed

Image result for patrick reed

The 2019 Northern Trust Open champion is coming off a surging victory that not only added to his trophy collection, but also bolstered him to 2nd in the FedEx Cup Points List (he was 50th heading into New Jersey). Reed was someone TWSN liked last week and we still like him at Medinah, where many of the holes dog-leg left which fits Reed’s natural draw perfectly. Reed wasn’t on the 2012 Ryder Cup Team so his track record here is fairly limited, but Medinah is long and according to reports, they have let the rough grow out much more than they did when the #3 course hosted Team USA and Team Europe in 2012. Reed’s accuracy off the tee has been mediocre this year at 80th on Tour, and approach wise he doesn’t rank in the top-40 in any iron distance approach, both from the rough or fairway. But he is 9th in strokes gained: approaching the green, which could be key on a 7,600 yard course. Reed has shot in the 60s 10 of his last 12 rounds, and has a 67 or better at least once in each tournament he’s played in since mid-June.

2. Jon Rahm

Image result for jon rahm irish open 2019

Since 2012, Rahm has the best stroke average in the playoffs with a minimum of 30 rounds played than anyone else on Tour. The Spaniard might be the hottest player on Tour right now- after coming close to victory at the US Open in June, he rattled off a win at the Irish Open, a T11 finish at The Open, solo 7th at the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational, and this past week finished 3rd at THE NORTHERN TRUST. Rahm was elite this week in NJ, hitting over 76% of greens in regulation and hitting over 71% of fairways. He was 7th in ball striking for the week and for the 2nd week in a row gained .8+ strokes putting on the field. If he can continue to roll the rock and gain massive strokes on the field tee to green (he is 9th this year on Tour), expect an even better finish than this past week- where he went +2 over his final 5 holes to effectively lose the tournament.

*Favorite* Rory McIlroy

Image result for rory mcilroy players championship

Is there anyone on Tour more consistent than Rory this year? McIlroy has 17 starts this year and made the cut 15 times. Of the 15 times he has made the cut, he has finished in the top-10 13 TIMES. After a T6 finish in NJ this past week which started with a Thursday 65, Rory heads back to Medinah where he has a ton of good memories. He mentioned this week that he met his future wife there in 2012, and also returned several years ago for an event with Luke Donald. Back at the Ryder Cup in 2012, McIlroy was the #1 golfer in the world and helped lead a Sunday comeback for Team Europe in what was the biggest comeback in 85 years. McIlroy was apart of some memorable matches, including his Sunday singles match against Keegan Bradley in which he was 1 of 5 straight European players to win in the early tee times, starting a charge that would end in victory. But it was McIlroy’s performance in the Saturday afternoon 4-ball with Ian Poulter against Zach Johnson and Jason Dufner that fans still vividly remember. Rory and Ian won 1-up, giving Team USA only a 10-6 lead heading into the final day. As the last much of the afternoon, the win boosted Team Europe’s confidence and ultimately was the spark that led the famous run on Sunday. McIlroy, who went 3-2 that weekend, will look for some more Medinah magic this week at the BMW Championship.

Updated FedEx Cup Standings

RANK | PLAYER | POINTS | PREVIOUS RANKING
1: Brooks Koepka, 8, 2,980, 1
2: Patrick Reed, 4, 2,774, 50
3: Rory McIlroy, 13, 2,670, 2
4: Matt Kuchar, 8, 2,313, 3
5: Jon Rahm, 11, 2,097, 10
6: Patrick Cantlay, 8, 1,957, 6
7: Xander Schauffele, 5, 1,858, 4
8: Abraham Ancer, 4, 1,822, 67
9: Gary Woodland, 8, 1,820, 5
10: Dustin Johnson, 7, 1,819, 7
11: Webb Simpson, 6, 1,807, 9
12: Justin Rose, 7, 1,713, 11
13: Paul Casey, 6, 1,629, 8
14: Adam Scott, 7, 1,564, 21
15: Justin Thomas, 5, 1,475, 17
16: Marc Leishman, 7, 1,415, 12
17: Rickie Fowler, 6, 1,391, 13
18: Chez Reavie, 5, 1,373, 14
19: Tony Finau, 4, 1,371, 16
20: Bryson DeChambeau, 5, 1,336, 18
21: Kevin Kisner, 3, 1,325, 22
22: Brandt Snedeker, 5, 1,289, 33
23: Charles Howell III, 5, 1,279, 15
24: Tommy Fleetwood, 6, 1,234, 19
25: Shane Lowry, 4, 1,162, 20
26: Sungjae Im, 7, 1,161, 23
27: Corey Conners, 3, 1,126, 31
28: Louis Oosthuizen, 5, 1,109, 51
29: Harold Varner III, 3, 1,108, 102
30: Andrew Putnam, 3, 1,100, 38

Top 30 players at the end of the BMW Championship advance to the Tour Championship

31: Ryan Palmer, 6, 1,096, 24
32: Jason Kokrak, 5, 1,082, 42
33: Hideki Matsuyama, 5, 1,061, 30
34: Francesco Molinari, 3, 1,061, 25
35: Scott Piercy, 6, 1,038, 26
36: J.T. Poston, 3, 1,034, 27
37: C.T. Pan, 2, 1,033, 35
38: Tiger Woods, 4, 1,003, 28
39: Billy Horschel, 4, 999, 44
40: Kevin Tway, 2, 996, 41
41: Lucas Glover, 6, 987, 32
42: Sung Kang, 4, 986, 29
43: Ian Poulter, 6, 980, 60
44: Jordan Spieth, 4, 960, 69
45: Rory Sabbatini, 6, 936, 36
46: Phil Mickelson, 2, 913, 34
47: Keith Mitchell, 3, 900, 37
48: Jim Furyk, 3, 890, 39
49: Ryan Moore, 2, 878, 61
50: Jason Day, 6, 865, 40
51: Adam Hadwin, 5, 859, 46
52: J.B. Holmes, 2, 840, 47
53: Si Woo Kim, 5, 838, 45
54: Nate Lashley, 2, 836, 43
55: Kevin Na, 3, 823, 48
56: Max Homa, 2, 806, 52
57: Collin Morikawa, 3, 805, 49
58: Cameron Champ, 3, 803, 64
59: Troy Merritt, 4, 797, 72
60: Dylan Frittelli, 1, 776, 53
61: Byeong Hun An, 3, 774, 57
62: Vaughn Taylor, 4, 733, 63
63: Joel Dahmen, 2, 729, 56
64: Graeme McDowell, 3, 729, 54
65: Adam Long, 2, 719, 55
66: Keegan Bradley, 3, 716, 58
67: Rafa Cabrera Bello, 2, 696, 59
68: Wyndham Clark, 3, 679, 90
69: Emiliano Grillo, 2, 673, 62
70: Joaquin Niemann, 4, 659, 74

Las Vegas Odds

Rory McIlroy8/1
Brooks Koepka8/1
Jon Rahm10/1
Dustin Johnson14/1
Justin Rose16/1
Justin Thomas16/1
Patrick Cantlay18/1
Webb Simpson20/1
Adam Scott25/1
Rickie Fowler25/1
Patrick Reed25/1
Tommy Fleetwood25/1
Louis Oosthuizen30/1
Jordan Spieth30/1
Xander Schauffele30/1
Paul Casey40/1
Tony Finau40/1
Bryson DeChambeau40/1
Tiger Woods50/1
Matt Kuchar50/1
Jason Day50/1
Billy Horschel50/1
Hideki Matsuyama50/1
Collin Morikawa50/1
Ian Poulter60/1
Francesco Molinari60/1
Marc Leishman60/1
Brandt Snedeker60/1
Jason Kokrak60/1
Kevin Kisner60/1
Gary Woodland60/1
Shane Lowry60/1
Rory Sabbatini80/1
Chez Reavie80/1
Rafa Cabrera Bello80/1
Ryan Moore80/1
Andrew Putnam80/1
Byeong Hun An80/1
Abraham Ancer80/1
Sungjae Im80/1
Joaquin Niemann80/1
Charles Howell III100/1
Lucas Glover100/1
Scott Piercy125/1
Keegan Bradley125/1
Adam Hadwin125/1
Harold Varner III125/1
Phil Mickelson150/1
Jim Furyk150/1
Troy Merritt150/1
Dylan Frittelli150/1
Wyndham Clark150/1
Emiliano Grillo150/1
Si Woo Kim150/1
Corey Conners150/1
J.T. Poston150/1
Cameron Champ150/1
Vaughn Taylor200/1
Ryan Palmer200/1
Kevin Tway200/1
Cheng Tsung Pan200/1
Graeme McDowell250/1
J.B. Holmes250/1
Nate Lashley250/1
Max Homa250/1
Keith Mitchell250/1
Sung Kang300/1
Joel Dahmen300/1
Adam Long500/1

Tournament Props

Rory McIlroy -106Brooks Koepka -106
Dustin Johnson -106Justin Rose -106
Patrick Cantlay -106Justin Thomas -106
Webb Simpson -110Adam Scott +100
Tommy Fleetwood -120Rickie Fowler +110
Bryson DeChambeau -106Tony Finau -106
Paul Casey -110Xander Schauffele +100
Patrick Reed -121Jordan Spieth +110
Louis Oosthuizen -110Billy Horschel +100
Jason Kokrak -106Ian Poulter -106
Gary Woodland -106Shane Lowry -106
Brandt Snedeker -110Abraham Ancer +100
Kevin Kisner -106Lucas Glover -106
Ryan Moore -137Harold Varner III +125
Adam Hadwin -106Chez Reavie -106
Joaquin Niemann -137Emiliano Grillo +120

DFS Picks

LINEUP #1

Justin Rose – $10,200

Jordan Spieth – $8,900

Louis Oosthuizen – $8,700

Ian Poulter – $8,000

Kevin Kisner – $7,600

Corey Conners – $6,600

Remaining Salary -> $0

LINEUP #2

Justin Thomas – $10,000

Adam Scott – $9,200

Gary Woodland – $7,900

Ryan Moore – $7,700

Abraham Ancer – $7,700

Rafa Cabrera-Belo – $7,500

Remaining Salary -> $0

LINEUP #3

Tommy Fleetwood – $9,000

Rickie Fowler – $8,800

Paul Casey – $8,400

Bryson DeChambeau – $8,300

Hideki Matsuyama – $8,200

Andrew Putnam – $7,300

Remaining Salary -> $0

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